Leszavaztunk mi is. Elégge mozog a falu, a délelőtti részvétel itt is biztos magas lesz.

Kiváncsi leszek a mi körzetünk hogyan alakul. A falu maga, az elmúlt évek parlamenti és önkormányzati választásait tekintve erősen Fideszes. Az idei választókerület azonban kiiicsit tágabb mint Páty, és a környező települések sokkal inkább a Tisza felé hajlanak.

Nem tudom, hogy lesznek-e választókerületi részeredmények, vagy csak körzetiek. Érdekes lenne ebben az esetben összehasonlítani.

#HungarianElections

I suppose, because we're on Fedi, and the Hungarian elections are of interest to people outside of the country too, I'll do my commentary in English from now on.

Not sure about what hashtag to use yet... I guess #algernonsHungarianElectionLiveTooting could work - it's easy to mute, and won't overlap with others. It's also quite a mouthful. Hm. #algyHuPolTooting? Lets do #algyHuPolTooting.

#HungarianElections would let people filter not just my commentary, but hopefully others too.

Maybe I'll use both! If I don't forget.

So, quick summary of the Hungarian parts upthread, in English:

We voted, participation appears to be remarkably high in the early hours. People are both excited and anxious - no surprises there.

Our little town, based on past elections, is strongly leaning towards Orbán's Fidesz. However, that won't matter much, because we share a constituency with other towns that lean heavily towards Tisza.

I wonder if we'll have partial results available for each town or voting place, or just the whole of the constituency. Would be interesting to see the contrast between the two.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

Hrm. Should I make this thread public (as opposed to the current unlisted) going forward?

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

Heh. I just realized I told GoToSocial to display unlisted toots on the web UI too. So the difference between public & unlisted aren't all that meaningful.

I'll keep it unlisted, because that hides replies other than mine on the web ui, and for political topics, I think that's a safer option.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

For future reference, there are five parties on the ballot:

• Fidesz, the current government
• Tisza, the rival
• Mi Hazánk, the ever present far-right
• Demokratikus Koalíció (DK), the "left"
• Magyar Kétfarkú Kutyapárt (MKKP), a party some may consider parody

Fidesz and Tisza are the real contenders, they will be part of the next parliament. Which one wins is the question.

Third place will be Mi Hazánk, the question is if they make the cut (they likely will), and whether they'll be the ones to decide who forms a government. If neither Tisza nor Fidesz have absolute majority, Mi Hazánk has an opportunity to sway one way or the other. If it comes to that, I'm reasonably sure they'll sway towards Fidesz.

The other two, DK and MKKP... if participation stays high, their chances of winning even one seat will be in danger.

If DK doesn't make the cut, I would be very happy. They've single handedly held back any reasonable opposition in Hungary for the past 16 years. They are the reason that our current alternative to Fidesz is Tisza (who aren't any better, imo), the reason we don't have anything better.

While I personally am not a fan of Tisza either, I am eternally grateful for them for making DK irrelevant.

I'm a bit sad for MKKP. They'd deserve a seat. A scenario where they have one, and DK has none, would make me a happy man.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

I am currently somewhat upset at index (a Hungarian online news portal), because their 2026 election page has a header image with four party leaders on it, while there are five parties on the ballots.

If DK's Klára Dobrev has a place on the banner, so does MKKP's Gergely Kovács. The two parties have similar-ish support according to polls.

I want a two-tailed dog in the parliament, dammit!

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

ROFLMAO.

My Mother-in-Law requested a mobile urn, because she's not in a shape to visit her designated voting place.

She just phoned my Wife that she voted, and two very polite young men just left. "They were so nice!"

For some context, she lives on the 3rd floor, the front door of the house is usually locked, and cannot be opened remotely: she'd have to walk down the stairs and open it herself. So when the mobile urn arrived, she leaned out the window, and asked if she can throw down the key.

"But of course!", they said.

They went up, introduced themselves, had her sign a bunch of papers, and turned around while she voted and threw the paper into the urn. Then they said goodbye and left.

First time any of my family voted this way, and this was a great experience for her. She really wanted to vote, but her health prevented her from going. Her pride also prevented her from admitting this, it took us a lot of effort to convince her to let us request a mobile urn for her, and she agreed last minute. She said she'll do the same in 2030, this was a good experience.

And now comes the fun part: the introductions. The two people were from different parties, one Fidesz, one from one of the opposition parties (I do not know which one). The Fidesz person introduced himself as Gergely Gulyás.

Gergely Gulyás is the Minister of the Prime Minister's office, and leader of the Fidesz parliamentary group. He's a Big Boss person.

It's quite something when such a Very Important Person accompanies a mobile urn. We're living in interesting times.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

Now, regarding the results, I've made my stance clear in the past, but I'm gonna do so again in this thread: I voted for MKKP (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutyapárt, Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party).

I can't in good conscience vote for fascists, nor can I place my vote for a small army of politically inexperienced businessmen.

Unlike many fellow Hungarians, and unlike many people rooting for us from all around the world, I do not believe we have a good choice. We're fucked either way, the only question is the shape of the dildo we're gonna get fucked with.

This election has been incredibly hard for me, because on one hand, I very much want the current regime gone. I am very happy and relieved that the party that has been the obstacle of any strong opposition forming was made irrelevant.

On the other hand, from what I've seen from Tisza, their messaging, their silence on certain topics, they're not a party I feel comfortable voting  for either. But there's noone else who could send Viktor Orbán packing.

And yet, I cannot vote for them. Luckily, it doesn't matter much, our constituency is leaning towards Tisza, my vote will not matter much. I'm also voting for a party that, if they end up with a seat, will rather side with Tisza than Fidesz.

With that out of the way, my predictions will follow shortly in the next toot.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

@algernon I think Dávid Nagy would be a better person to be included in that header. All the other people happen to be both party presidents and list leaders at the same time, but in the case of MKKP the distinction needs to be made.

@gaborudvari Fair enough! I'd be happy with seeing either of them in the banner. They both deserve it as much as any of the others (in some cases, even more, tbfh).

I made some predictions back in late February. I don't believe anything changed meaningfully since then.

Without much explanation, my current predictions:

1. Fidesz with ~115 seats.
2. Tisza with ~76 seats.
3. Mi Hazánk with 6 seats.
4. Independent & Minority Seat - 1-1 seats each.

DK and MKKP will not make the cut, and Fidesz will have a strong majority. The toot linked above explains briefly why I'm sceptical about the polling numbers, and why I predict a Fidesz win, despite most odds.

My predictions the past two elections (+ the EU elections two years ago) were pretty darn close, much closer than polls were. While that's no guarantee it will be the same this year - we're living in unprecedented times after all -, I don't expect I'll be off much.

But we'll see! If I'm wildly off, that will be an interesting self-reflection to figure out where I went wrong.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

I just realized that the toot I linked upthread is followes-only. Not going to repeat its contents.

I'll be talking about numbers and outcomes as counting starts anyway. Only a couple of hours to wait. Besides, there are professionals¹ covering the elections, who even wants to read the ramblings of a random fedi luddite?

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

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1. lol, rofmao, kekw, etm ↩︎

@algernon
huh, you don't have election silence in Hungary?

@wolf480pl I think we are well past the times when that thing mattered (or the authorities cared) @algernon

@wolf480pl Nope. Election silence as a thing was removed ~13 years ago.

Campaigning is prohibited in 150m radius around voting places, and that's about it.

@algernon
Interesting...

In Poland it's still a thing, the media treat it very seriously, and most people avoid posting political stuff on socnets on the election day too.

@wolf480pl Election coverage has been a thing here in Hungary as long as I can remember. Even before 2013, the TV was in full election coverage mode the entire day.

Covering the elections was never prohibited, nor discouraged. Heck, Fidesz wants it to happen, because they can still exert some control via state-owned media, in the disguise of coverage.

Now, there are some things prohibited on election day: mass transporting voters, food & beverage for party voters, placing new banners, handing out flyers, etc. That's no-no (at least on paper).

But talking about turnout, predictions, and so on - that's fine, and always has been.

Obligatory note: I'm seeing a number of opinions that boil down to an assertion that higher turnout is more favourable for the opposition.

Looking back at the past 16 years: I have my doubts. Higher turnout did not yield better opposition results, like, ever. Lets have a look:

• 2006: 67.83% + 64.39% turnout, MSZP wins with 190 seats over Fidesz's 164.
• 2010: 64.38% + 46.66%  turnout, Fidesz wins over MSZP with 263 vs 59 seats.
• 2014: 61.73% turnout, Fidesz wins 133 seats over 59 seats of the Coalition.
• 2018: 69.73% turnout, Fidesz wins 133 over Jobbik's 26 and MSZP-Párbeszéd's 20 seats.
• 2022: 69.59% turnout, Fidesz wins 135 seats over the opposition's 57 (+ Mi Hazánk's 6).

While turnout wasn't as high as it will be today, the difference between 61% and 69% turnout was negligible. If we go from 69% to 75%, I don't see how it would significantly change.

"But Fidesz can't convince more people, they plateud years ago!" - they most likely did, yes. But they're very good at convincing their voters to go out and vote. In the past 16 years, with consequitive supermajority wins, the stakes were low. Today, the situation is very different.

The "everybody counts" message now matters. Believing that they don't have voters to mobilize¹ is foolish.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

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1. Whether legally or otherwise, depending on which side you ask. ↩︎

Lets do a little counting! According to valasztas.hu, there are ~7,5 million people who can vote.

In 2022, Fidesz received 2.8 million votes (52.52%), 2.6 million in 2018 (49.27%), and 2.1 million (44.11%) in 2014. That's a steady increase.

Hardly anyone expects a turnout larger than 80%, which would be about 6 million people. If Fidesz receives the same amount of votes as in 2018 (2.6 million), that leaves 3.2 million on the table. Mi Hazánk is expected to receive ~300k, leaving 2.9 million for the rest. DK & MKKP won't be a significant factor I believe, so lets be generous, and count 2.8 million for Tisza.

That's a narrow win at best, and if Fidesz & Mi Hazank form a coalition (a possibility!), then there will be no regime change, and we'll have a far-right party as part of the government. I'd chalk that up as even worse than a pure Fidesz win, to be fucking honest.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPolTooting

The thing is, Fidesz's camp is very hard to move. Yes, they fell back in popularity in a bit, but I'm sorry, I'm not seeing a significant change.

Any opposition that seeks to replace Fidesz would have to convince the ~20% who never vote, or convince enough Fidesz voters to switch sides. I do not see that happening today.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPosting

@algernon My question is, do the others, the opposition, :have plans for somethinh else that doesn't involve tryimg to put down the leading party, or are they having actual, objective plans for the country's future? Because this looks a lot like my country where everyone tries to make the leading party fall without any actual goals so people know who to vote for. I am keeping up with your posts, thanks for posting in English too.

@tardis That's a good question!

In previous elections, they... didn't. And in this cycle, it's... complicated. There are Plans™. Allegedly. Good plans. Not to be shared with the public until after the elections.

Ok, I'm exaggerating a bit, but... the main message is still "we're not Fidesz", and "we'll do it better, honest!" - while still being center-right capitalists, who propped up their ranks with businessmen. That does not strike me as having a plan that'd be good for the country.

A plan that would be good for their pockets? Yes. But that's just Fidesz 2.0.

They do plan to be more EU-friendly at least, but... that's a very low bar to cross, really.

Putting my pessimist¹ mask on, lets entertain another idea: what if Fidesz maintains their 2022 vote count at 80% turnout, and Mi Hazánk crosses the 5% threshold (~370k votes at 80%  turnout), Tisza, at best, will have a tiny majority. If Mi Hazánk does better than four years ago (I expect them to do better), then Fidesz wins.

Of course, things are a bit more complicated than simple vote count. But keep in mind: the entire election system is built to favour Fidesz. A party could technically win with fever votes than Fidesz, if they win at all the right places. But that's a whole other miracle to pull off.

#HungarianElections #algyHuPosting #WeAreSoFucked

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1. Who am I kidding? That's my realist mask. Fuck. ↩︎

@algernon Because my phone bugged. Hmm.. I would share plans, if I were a politician, tbf. But I'm an average citizen, and of another country. Here's even worse. No one knows who is for what? Etc...,

@tardis It's complicated, because the average person doesn't care about plans. They care about what they hear on TV, on the internet, from friends & family, etc.

Why waste a lot of time making a plan for the General Public when the vast majority of them will not read it? At best, they'll read or listen to a summary by their preferred propagandist.