There's a lot of speculation (here & elsewhere) about when the AI-related boom in the stock markets might be revealed to be an unsustainable bubble, leading to a financial crisis?

The key trigger will be an event that violently shifts the balance between investors' 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) and their (currently relatively down-played) view of global geopolitical risk(s).

Surprisingly, the US ongoing attrition against Iran hasn't done this, so what will?

#AI #geopolitics #politics

@ChrisMayLA6

I am by no means an expert, but I did manage to read through this quite lengthy theory which I found plausible. According to this, the event happens while valuations are still rising but have stopped rising FASTER.

"The market is pricing AI as a technology cycle when its actual anatomy is that of a credit-driven real estate cycle."

Interesting, at least…

https://www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-second-derivative-why-no-one

@airwhale I'm about half way through but...holy shit. I don't necessarily agree that second derivatives weren't considered previously, but I haven't seen the analogy to the subprime crisis (and it's extreme dangers) presented so bluntly.

@ChrisMayLA6